SEC East Still Anyone's Game

 We are almost half-way through the 2008 college football season, and as usual, the race to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game is still very much up in the air. Nashville, and not Gainsville or Athens is the new seat of power in the SEC East.
       Bobby Johnson has steered the Vandy ship past rough waters against Auburn to a 3-0 start in  SEC play. Believe it or not, in the always unpredicable SEC East, everyone still has a shot to wind up in Atlanta in December. Here I break down the one game for each team
that will make or break the SEC East. Next week I'll take a look at the SEC West.

SEC EAST

1.  VANDERBILT 5-0 (3-0):              [November 8th vs. Florida]

     Sure we're talking about Vandy, a team that hasn't had a winning season 26 years, and with their 5-0 start has clinched only their 7th five win season in that span. The same Vanderbilt team that hasn't won a bowl game since the Eisenhower administration (a 25-13 win over Auburn in the 1955 Gator Bowl). Current head coach Bobby Johnson has developed a ridiculously simple winning gameplan: Don't Beat Yourself.

       The Commodores lead the SEC in fewest penalties and turnover margin, and that's allowed them to overcome an offense that is dead last in the SEC. For the Commodores to get to Atlanta, they still have to beat the two Beasts of the East, Florida and Georgia. In the last three seasons, Johnson has proven his teams can pull off the upset, beating Georgia, Auburn, and Tennessee. The only SEC team Johnson has yet to beat is Florida, and regardless of what happens against Georgia in two weeks, a Vanderbilt win over Florida would be their first in 20 years and go a long way in proving the Commodores are for real this season.

2.   FLORIDA  4-1 (2-1)                  [November 1st vs. Georgia]

     
     OK, so when isn't the game formally known as "The World's Biggest Cocktail Party" not a season defining game for the Florida Gators?? But this one might be even bigger and much more personal for the Gators. Urban Meyer is still fuming over the Bulldogs group touchdown celebration as the Gators got chomped by the Dawgs 42-30 last season. It was only the third time in the last 18 tries that Florida has come out on the losing end of the rivalry.

     Despite an upset loss to Ole Miss and a battle looming in the Swamp against LSU this weekend, the SEC East is generally won in the East (Just ask Georgia about last season). The Gators have only won the SEC East once in the last seven years, and a win over the Dawgs would likely mean Urban's gang would likely be favored to run the table in the East and book a spot in Atlanta.
    
3.   GEORGIA  4-1 (1-1)              [October 18th vs. Vanderbilt]
 
     So this one may have Bulldog fans scratching their heads. After all, considering the Gators recent domination, you might think Florida is a must have to get back to Atlanta. Not if you are Georgia Head Coach Mark Richt. Richt has won the SEC East three times, two of those times going on to win the Conference crown. Each time, the Dawgs have done it despite losing to Florida. Instead its been losses to second tier East teams (South Carolina in 2001 and 2007, Vandy and Kentucky in 2006) that have tripped up other trips to the Georgia Dome.

       Last year, Tennessee surprised the Bulldogs between the hedges with a 35-14 win. This time the Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare and the Vols have done little to answer the lingering questions
at quarterback, making a repeat of last season unlikely. Sitting in the middle of the Tennessee, LSU, Florida gauntlet is Vandy, a physical, methodical team that plays mistake free football, like a less talented version of Alabama, and we all saw how that turned out for the Bulldogs.

4.   SOUTH CAROLINA 4-2 (1-2)  [November 1st vs. Tennessee]

     You could easily point to last week's 31-24 win over Ole Miss as the defining game of the season for the Head Ball Coach. With lackluster wins over Wofford and UAB, it looked as if the Gamecocks could have been headed toward far worse than the six game swoon that dragged SC from a number 6 national ranking to a seat at home for the holidays. 

      If USC quarterback Chris Smelley (SEC Offensive Player of the Week thanks to his 327 yard, 3 touchdown performance against the Rebels) continues to get protection in the pocket, the Gamecocks offense might finally be able to take the pressure off its salty conference topping defense. The ship may be righted for now, but it would likely take a six game SEC winning streak to send USC to their first conference title game in school history. That's not likely with games against LSU and Florida on the schedule. This weekend's game at Kentucky won't be a cakewalk, but the Garnet and Black have won 11 of 16 against the Wildcats since joining the SEC and currently own an 8 game winning streak over Big Blue. If that streak continues, and the Gamecocks fend of a dreadful Arkansas team, it leaves Steve Spurrier's old nemesis, Phil Fulmer and Tennessee standing in the way of a bowl bid this season.

       Tennessee has taken two of three from Spurrier since he arrived in Columbia. Last year, the Gamecocks dominated the Vols, nearling doubling Big Orange in first downs and time of possession, outrushing, outpassing, but ultimately not outscoring Tennessee, losing in overtime 27-24. With both teams ranked in the top ten nationally in defense, it may not be the team that scores last that wins, but the team that scores at all.

5.   KENTUCKY 4-1 (0-1)         [Oct. 11th vs. South Carolina]

     It's still way too early to tell how this Kentucky team will fare in the SEC this year, but if last week's hard fought loss to Alabama is any indication, they could play spoiler for a lot of SEC Title hopes this season. Sporting the nation's top ranked scoring defense, just over a touchdown a game, the Wildcats should be in the game against just about everyone they play. To move into the upper tier in the SEC East, they have to take care of the team many consider the next rung up the ladder, South Carolina.

          In the last three seasons, Kentucky has been able to knock off some big names, Georgia in '06, and LSU and Louisville last season. In that time they've played Georgia and Florida closer than they have the Gamecocks, losing by a combined 106-53 during the Spurrier era. A win this weekend over South Carolina could lead to a big confidence boost heading into the rest of the SEC schedule.

6.   TENNESSEE 2-3 (0-2)            [Oct. 25th vs. Alabama]

     Yes, believe it or not, even the Tennessee Volunteers have a shot to win the SEC East right now, even with an 0-2 conference mark. Despite what seems like an absolute disaster in Knoxville right now, Phil Fulmer always seems to find a way to pull a rabbit out of his Big Orange hat when he needs it most. Last season it was the Georgia game that got Tennessee back in the SEC race. The Vols are 13-2 in the last five years against their traditional SEC "home stretch" of South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.

     This weekend's game with the Bulldogs figures to be a must win, but with the Vols offensive woes, and question marks at quarterback, it isn't likely that they'll be able to knock off a revenge minded Georgia crew on the road with a week to prepare. Instead, as crazy as it may seem, look to their home date with Alabama as what could be Fulmer's biggest smoke and mirrors magic act.

     Tennessee has the defense to stifle the Alabama rushing attack, if their offense can hold on to the football. If Tennessee falters this  weekend, Fulmer and Co. might just get desperate enough to really shake things up on offense, like say, actually take the bridle of the G-gun offense and let Gerald Jones do his thing. Fulmer is good for one head scratching loss a season...that was UCLA. Catching an overconfident Alabama team in the middle of a soft stretch in their schedule could give Tennessee their first head scratching win of the season. A victory over the Tide might end up being the career saving game for coach Phil Fulmer.
   

     SEC Picks For October 11th

     Florida        20     LSU  17
     Georgia      21     Tennessee 13
     USC            26     Kentucky 16
     Vanderbilt  16      Miss St.  6
     Auburn       27     Arkansas 9
    

     Upset Special

     Wisconsin  over  Penn St.