Local Economist Weighs in on the Recession

It's official!

We're in a recession.

That's the word from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The private group of more than a thousand professors and researchers tracks the economy.

It says the recession started last December.

Steve Hayes, Worker, "It's not surprising. It's a down turn everywhere."

After months of local layoffs, plant closings and cut backs a group of economists officially uses the R word.. Recession.

Dr. Bruce Hutchinson, UTC Economics Professor, "It's the reality and it's not going to be a shallow recession I don't think."

UTC's Doctor Bruce Hutchinson defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Hutchinson, "We need to get some good economic news. We need to get that bottom as they talk about and then some positive economic news to start people feeling and businesses feeling better about things economically."

Unfortunately it's bad news that keeps coming.

The Dow Jones average dropped nearly 700 points with the recession confirmation.

And Hutchinson wonders about its effect on Christmas spending.

Hutchinson, "How negatively it's going to impact consumers and their Christmas shopping I think is the real key question."

Also a trade group reported a 26 year low in U.S manufacturing activity last month.

New orders fell for the 12th month in a row.

Hutchinson, "I think it's going to be a deeper recession than in 2000 or 1991 and I suspect it's unfortunately going to be a longer recession."

Still with a new president, there's cautious optimism.

Tracey Duncan, "Somebody's gotta make some changes. I'm hoping we can't get any worse."

Hutchinson hopes the recession will last no longer than four quarters.

Most economists agree the downturn will last until at least the middle of next year.

Nordia Epps