Coats: ISIS commands thousands of fighters

With reporting by Olivia Gazis

Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dan Coats offered Congress some assessments on worldwide threats that appear to be directly at odds with existing U.S. policy. Coats, in a report submitted to Congress on worldwide threats facing the U.S., says that ISIS “still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, and it maintains eight branches, more than a dozen networks, and thousands of dispersed supporters around the world, despite significant leadership and territorial losses.” In December, President Trump declared victory over ISIS, saying, “We have won against ISIS.”

The Trump administration also continues to push for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, though little progress has been made on this front since Mr. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met in June 2018. He plans a second summit with Kim at the end of February. But the DNI predicts that North Korea will seek to retain its nuclear capabilities and is “unlikely” to give them up. The assessment is based on observations of “some activity that is inconsistent with full denuclearization.” It also says that North Korean leaders “view nuclear arms as critical to regime survival.”  

Iran’s ballistic missile program — which has more ballistic missiles than any country in the region — still threatens the Middle East, according to Coats. And the DNI continues to assess “that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device.” Iran, under a 2015 nuclear accord, agreed not to produce nuclear weapons. President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal last year, though European leaders have kept the agreement in place.

The latest testimony also comes as the Justice Department unveiled criminal charges against Huawei Technologies Co., accusing China’s largest telecommunications company of stealing trade secrets, committing wire fraud, breaking confidentiality agreements and violating sanctions against Iran.

The nation’s top intelligence heads FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, are giving lawmakers an update on worldwide security threats currently facing the U.S. The chiefs will testify on Tuesday before the Senate Intelligence Committee in the panel’s first public hearing of the new year.   

Highlights from Tuesday’s hearing:

China

• According to DNI Coats’ threat assessment, “China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s” and the relationship is “likely to strengthen in the coming year as some of their interests and threat perceptions converge, particularly regarding perceived U.S. unilateralism and interventionism and Western promotion of democratic values and human rights.”

• Coats said China and Russia “seek to expand their global influence” to areas like the Middle East.

• China’s long-term strategy is to achieve “global superiority” and to diminish U.S. influence while shaping international views. Its pursuit of intellectual property through illicit means remains a threat to the U.S. government and private sector.

• Coats referred to China’s influence as a “remarkable rise” in capabilities that are “stunning,” most of which has been achieved by stealing information from U.S. companies and bringing back technological stolen properties. He said China poses as a “serious issue that has to be dealt with.”

• “Rule of law and international norms and fairness in trade engagements is not the Chinese model. In countering it, we have to expose it,” said Coats.

• Coats said Tuesday’s indictment against telecom giant Huawei exposed the threat from China “in a significant way” and “alerted our allies” as they are now “second-guessing” their responses to the Chinese market. 

• “The Chinese counterintelligence threat is more deep, more diverse, more vexing, more challenging, more comprehensive and more concerning than any counterintelligence threat that I can think of,” remarked Wray. 

Russia

• Coats said that the Kremlin is “stepping up” its campaign to divide Western institutions and expect to wage information warfare against democracies, including the use of social media in an effort to continue to divide Western societies.

• Wray confirmed that the disinformation campaign carried out by Russia through social media was continued in 2018 and they’re continuing to “adapt their model” and other countries are have been eyeing that approach.

Iran

• “We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device,” according to Coats. 

North Korea

• Coats said that North Korea is “unlikely” to give up their nuclear capabilities, despite the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to achieve denuclearization in the Korean peninsula. 
• Coats said intelligence observations of North Korea’s activities are “inconsistent with full denuclearization” as they view control of nuclear weapons as “critical to regime survival”
• Haspel testified that its clear the North Koreans value dialogue with the U.S. and that the intelligence community sees indications that dictator Kim Jong Un is trying to “navigate a path toward some kind of better future for the North Korean people.”

Election security

• Coats said securing America’s election systems will continue to be a “top priority” for the intelligence community
• The intelligence community assess that foreign actors view the 2020 election as an opportunity to advance their interests, and expects them to “refine their capabilities” and “add new tactics”