Suns vs. Cavaliers odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from model on 44-30 roll

Collin Sexton and the Cleveland Cavaliers play host to Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, and tipoff from Quicken Loans Arena is at 7 p.m. ET. The Suns own the NBA‘s worst record at 11-48, but the Cavs aren’t far behind at 12-46. This game has the closest NBA spread of the night, and both teams have covered the same number of times this season (25). The line has already swung by 3.5 points, with the Suns favored by one after opening as 2.5-point underdogs. The over-under for total points scored is 219.5 in the latest Suns vs. Cavaliers odds, up a half-point from the opener. Before you make any Cavs vs. Suns picks and NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 19 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 217-164 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 19 on a blistering 44-30 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has locked in on Suns vs. Cavaliers. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also has locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine. 

The model is well aware that Cleveland is getting healthy heading into this game, while the Suns are still without one of their top scorers in T.J. Warren. The Cavs will have Kevin Love (rest) back for this game and they picked up a rare win in his last appearance. When paired with Larry Nance Jr.’s impressive play of late, Love makes this a formidable frontcourt.

Nance has been a force lately, averaging 12 points, 15 rebounds and over one steal and block over his past four games. The Suns have been the NBA’s worst defensive frontcourt, ranking second-to-last in rebounding rate, and no team has allowed more points from within the restricted area. DeAndre Ayton ranks 56th among 65 qualified centers in real defensive plus-minus, and Phoenix’s options at the four simply aren’t physical enough to contend with the size and rebounding ability of Nance and Love. 

But just because Phoenix is at a disadvantage inside doesn’t mean it can’t cover the Cavaliers vs. Suns spread.

The model is also well aware that the Cavs are the only team with a worse defensive efficiency than the Suns this season. While Phoenix’s frontcourt has been atrocious defensively, no team boasts a bigger defensive weakness than Cleveland’s backcourt. Among 491 qualified players, Sexton and Jordan Clarkson rank 490th and 489th, respectively, in defensive real plus-minus. Only Trae Young has been a bigger defensive liability than Sexton and Clarkson, who log the majority of minutes at the guard spots for the Cavs.

So who wins Suns vs. Cavaliers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Suns vs. Cavaliers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.