Virginia vs. Louisville odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from model on 16-8 roll

Third-ranked Virginia finds itself in a three-way tie for first place with North Carolina and Duke in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Coast Conference. The Cavaliers (23-2, 11-2) look to stay hot when they face host No. 18 Louisville (18-9, 9-5) and are out to win their second regular-season conference championship in a row and fourth in six years. Saturday’s tipoff is set for noon ET from the KFC Yum! Center. Virginia has won three in a row and eight of its last 10.

The Cavaliers are favored by 5.5 points in the latest Virginia vs. Louisville odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 124.5. Before making any Virginia vs. Louisville picks of your own, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has dialed in on Virginia vs. Louisville. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that Virginia is 8-1 on the road and has clinched its ninth winning season in a row. The Cavaliers’ only losses this season were to Duke. Virginia has had Louisville’s number, winning 12 of the 15 meetings with the Cardinals, including the past seven and eight of nine since Louisville joined the ACC.

The Cavaliers are led by junior guards Kyle Guy (15.4 ppg), De’Andre Hunter (14.8 ppg) and Ty Jerome (13.1 ppg). Guy has been hot the past four games, including a 23-point performance at Virginia Tech and 22 vs. Notre Dame. Hunter has equaled or surpassed his average in seven of the past 10 games, including 20 vs. Notre Dame last Saturday and 20 vs. North Carolina Feb. 11. Jerome has surpassed his average in three of the past four, including 16 vs. Virginia Tech Monday and against Duke Feb. 9.

But just because the Cavaliers have been dominant does not guarantee they cover the Virginia vs. Louisville spread on Saturday.

That’s because Louisville is 13-3 at home and has won eight of its past 12. The Cardinals are tied for sixth in the conference with Virginia Tech and have clinched a winning record for the fourth year in a row since the NCAA stripped them of their records during a four-year span under coach Rick Pitino. Louisville also had winning records in the 10 years prior to that.

Sophomore forward Jordan Nwora (17.3 ppg) has been hot. He has surpassed his average in four of the past six games, including 23 points against Duke. Senior forward Dwayne Sutton (10.7 ppg) has surpassed his average in six of 10, including 19 vs. North Carolina Feb. 2 and 15 vs. Duke Feb. 12.

So who wins Louisville vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Louisville vs. Virginia spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,200 on its college basketball picks the past two years, and find out.