2019 MLB win totals, odds, predictions: Advanced computer model picks under 77 for Cincinnati Reds

The San Diego Padres shook up Major League Baseball by giving Manny Machado the massive 10-year, $300 million deal he’d been looking for in free agency. That led to major changes in the 2019 MLB win totals, as San Diego was bumped up to 78.5 projected victories. But the Padres are still well behind top National League contenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers (95), Chicago Cubs (89), and Washington Nationals (88.5). With Bryce Harper and Craig Kimbrel among the big names still looking for a home, even more movement in the 2019 MLB win totals could be coming, making it challenging to make your own picks without a little help. There is certainly plenty of value to be found at this point, so before locking any 2019 MLB picks of your own, look at the season-long MLB projections from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the entire season 10,000 times and found five MLB teams whose Vegas win totals are way off. This same model crushed the 2018 NFL schedule and is beating the books in NBA and college basketball, so you’ll want to see what it has to say.

The model performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past three years when it came to picking games straight up. Moreover, the model has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks the past two years and is up more than $4,000 this season alone on top-rated NBA plays. 

Now, it’s locked in on Vegas’ 2019 MLB win totals. We can tell you the model says the Cincinnati Reds go well under their total of 77 wins. 

Cincinnati re-tooled its roster via a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers that sent Homer Bailey to Los Angeles for Yasiel Puig, starter Alex Wood, outfielder Matt Kemp, and infielder Kyle Farmer. There were certainly plenty of salary and clubhouse chemistry implications involved in the deal, but ultimately the Reds were looking to bolster a 67-win roster from 2018 with a career 3.29 ERA pitcher in Wood and a pair of outfielders in Puig and Kemp that bring power to the lineup. 

The model sees slight improvement in 2019 for Cincinnati, projecting the Reds to bump up to 70.2 wins this season. But that still falls well short of Vegas’ expectations, so confidently lock in a play for the under.

The model also generated huge disparities on four other teams, including the Kansas City Royals. They finished with 58 wins last season in a dismal season. Oddsmakers have set their season-win total at 69, and the projection model has a strong opinion on the 2019 fortunes for a Kansas City team that won the World Series four years ago.

So which teams sail past their projected win totals? And how many wins will every single MLB team have this season? Visit SportsLine now to get the five best season win total bets, plus see every team’s projected record, all from an advanced computer model that keeps crushing its picks, and find out.