Pivotal Week For SEC Heavyweights

October 16, 2024

Rick Nyman,

Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee all entered the season with high hopes, if not expectations, of making the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Each has one loss, and three of the four could have two after Saturday. A Southeastern Conference team with two losses would not be out of the playoff conversation, but its margin for error would be razor thin.

No. 5 Georgia has a big opportunity at No. 1 Texas on Saturday night. A win keeps the Bulldogs in the thick of the race for a spot in the SEC championship game and cushions the blow of their loss to Alabama. A loss to the Longhorns, depending on what it looks like, would not be insurmountable with matchups against Tennessee and Mississippi among the remaining games.

No. 7 Alabama’s visit to No. 11 Tennessee does feel like an elimination game. The Crimson Tide’s loss at Vanderbilt is a big smudge on their resume, and their two-point win at home against South Carolina did not impress. Same goes for Tennessee with its loss at Arkansas and overtime win at home against Florida.

No. 8 LSU’s playoff hopes would be in peril if it doesn’t win at Arkansas. Each of the last four meetings has been decided by three points. The Tigers have rebounded from their season-opening loss to a Southern California team that’s hit hard times in the Big Ten. Like Alabama, LSU struggled to defeat South Carolina, and last week the Tigers beat Mississippi in overtime after scoring the tying touchdown with 27 seconds left in regulation.

In the Big Ten, defending national champion and 24th-ranked Michigan (4-2) can forget about a fourth straight playoff appearance if it doesn’t win at No. 22 Illinois (5-1), and we should find out how good No. 16 Indiana (6-0, 3-0) really is when it hosts Nebraska (5-1, 2-1).

Arizona State (5-1, 2-1) visits Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1) for a meeting of two of the Big 12’s surprise teams. Their game is the conference’s co-main event with No. 17 Kansas State (5-1, 2-1) at West Virginia (3-3, 2-1).

Two key games in the Atlantic Coast Conference have No. 6 Miami (6-0, 2-0) at Louisville (4-2, 2-1) and Virginia (4-2, 2-1) at No. 10 Clemson (5-1, 4-0).

Best game

No. 5 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 1 Texas (6-0, 2-0), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

The Longhorns look every bit the part of an SEC team in their first season since leaving the Big 12. The defense is the best in the nation, and QB Quinn Ewers is healthy again and leading a top-10 offense.

Georgia QB Carson Beck threw for a career-high 459 yards against Mississippi State last week. But the Bulldogs must tighten up their defense. They’ve given up more than 30 points twice, and on Saturday surrendered pass plays of 35, 42 and 72 yards.

BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Longhorns as 3 1/2-point favorites.

Heisman watch

Clemson QB Cade Klubnik is in the second tier of Heisman Tropy candidates, tied for sixth with Georgia’s Beck at 14-1 odds among the betting public at BetMGM. Klubnik has the Tigers’ offense rolling the last month and could put himself into the mix with big performances at home against Virginia and Louisville next week.

The Tigers are averaging 48.6 points per game since 34-3 season-opening loss to Georgia, and they’ve amassed at least 500 yards in four of their last five games. Klubnik has thrown for 17 touchdowns against two interceptions and is completing 67% of his passes for 254 yards per game.

Numbers to know

4 — FBS-leading number of forced fumbles by Georgia Southern linebacker Marques Watson-Trent.

29-0 — Iowa’s record since 2020 when scoring at least 21 points.

48 — Graham Mertz’s consecutive starts, third-most among active FBS quarterbacks, before a season-ending ACL tear in Florida’s game against Tennessee last week.

56 — Current players for unbeaten and No. 13 BYU who have served full-time, voluntary missions for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

1960 — Last time North Carolina State, which visits California, played on the West Coast.

Under the radar

Nebraska (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at No. 16 Indiana (6-0, 3-0), Saturday noon ET (Fox)

Indiana has made it look easy, on paper, while averaging 47.5 points per game during its best start since 1967. The Hoosiers led their first three opponents by no fewer than 17 points at half, but it took them until the fourth quarter to pull away from Maryland and Northwestern.

Nebraska should be Indiana’s toughest test so far. Freshman QB Dylan Raiola will look to rebound after playing his worst half of the season against Rutgers in his last game. The Cornhuskers’ defense is second in the Big Ten in points allowed (11.3 ppg), leads the conference in sacks (18) and is tied with Ohio State for fourth nationally in yards allowed per rush (2.7).

Hot seat

Will Hall is 14-29 in his fourth season at Southern Mississippi, 4-14 since he led the Golden Eagles to a Lending Tree Bowl win over Rice to end a 7-6 season in 2022. Only two of those four wins since have come against Bowl Subdivision opponents.

Hall hired new offensive and defensive coordinators in the offseason and has 51 new players on his roster after mining the transfer portal. The Eagles are worse on offense, averaging just 16.7 points per game, and about the same on defense. Arkansas State visits Saturday.

Hall’s contract is up at the end of the season. It looks like his time at Southern Miss will be, too.