Nolan Arenado skipped free agency by signing an extension, and here’s what to expect for other top 2020 FAs

The biggest news in Major League Baseball so far this week wasn’t a Bryce Harper signing, but instead a record-setting contract extension for Rockies‘ third baseman Nolan Arenado. The eight-year, $260 million is now the largest-ever deal in terms of average annual value for a position player. Arenado was set to become a free agent next offseason, but now he’s set up for life. 

Arenado comes off the board from the top of next year’s free agent class, but lots of big names remain. Might the tough free agent market — and don’t kid yourselves into thinking the Manny Machado deal means everything is all of a sudden fixed — coax some of them to go the way of Arenado and sign an extension? Let’s take a look at the top 10 remaining free agents (listed alphabetically).

Jose Abreu is coming off his worst statistical season, though he was still an All-Star and Silver Slugger winner. He’s unlikely to ever again come close to the destructive force he was as a rookie in 2014, but he hit .304/.354/.552 (141 OPS+) with 43 doubles, six triples and 33 home runs in 2017. He’s heading to his age-32 season. A four-year deal likely gets it done here, but the White Sox don’t exactly sound keen on the idea. On Feb. 19, per beat writer Scott Merkin, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said “we prefer to handle our business in the offseason.” 

Xander Bogaerts is a prime candidate. He’s entering his age-26 season, plays the premium position of shortstop and had a breakout offensive season in 2018. Many use the mantra to never pay for career years, but he was 25 years old. This could be the new normal. It would appear a deal is possible with both Bogaerts and Chris Sale. From the Boston Globe on Feb. 18: 

“Conversations have been had, but I don’t really want to get into everything . . . These are great players. We’d love them to be Red Sox for the rest of their careers,” [Red Sox chairman Tom] Werner said in response to a question about contract talks with Sale and Bogaerts. “We’d love to be able to have long-term contracts with [Sale, Bogaerts, and Betts]. But our conversations with them, which are ongoing, are private. I think that’s the best way to consummate a deal.”

Keep an eye on this one. 

There were discussions on a Madison Bumgarner extension with the Giants a few years ago, but those talks died and now it seems much more likely that Bumgarner is traded. New club president Farhan Zaidi said trade talks this offseason were “overblown,” but if the Giants are not in contention come July, Bumgarner is surely gone. 

Nick Castellanos seems an obvious trade candidate. The Tigers are rebuilding and Castellanos is coming off his best season. He’s only under control for one more year. There have been lots of trade rumors, too, but 10 days ago this was dropped …

It’s still far-fetched, but a long-term extension making Castellanos the centerpiece of the rebuild could still happen. 

Gerrit Cole’s career took the step forward many had long been dreaming in 2018. He finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting in his first year with the Astros. He’s now entering his age-28 season and is a year away from free agency. Shouldn’t the Astros pursue an extension? Astros owner Jim Crane recently discussed as much, along with Justin Verlander also being a year away from free agency. Via the Houston Chronicle: 

We certainly are going to look at it either now or as the season progresses depending on what they want to do. Both of those guys are good pitchers and should be good pitchers down the road. There’s three things in baseball that I always tell Jeff he needs to know: it’s pitching, pitching and pitching. We’ll always try to take a look at those guys and see if we can’t extend both of them or one of them.  

Cole would command a lot more than Verlander, given their age differences. It’ll likely come down to preference for the Astros, as it seems doubtful they would extend both. 

While there’s a ton of fanfare for sluggers in Boston and the Bronx, Khris Davis actually led the majors with 48 homers last year. He’s been over 40 homers and 100 RBI in each of his three seasons in Oakland. Davis earlier this month told reporters that he wants to stay with the A’s for “at least three more years.” He also said, “I don’t want to break the bank,” which has to be music to the ears of ownership. Still, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Davis’ asking price is unlikely to drop from three years and $45 million. That isn’t breaking the bank for a slugger of his caliber, but the A’s M.O. is more to trade someone in Davis’ situation rather than extend him. This situation bears watching. 

Paul Goldschmidt was acquired this offseason by the Cardinals and they knew full well he was just one year away from free agency. It appears the plan here is to convince Goldschmidt to stay in St. Louis. From Feb. 9th in stltoday.com: 

The Cardinals are expected to begin, in earnest, conversations with Goldschmidt about an extension that would likely be the richest contract ever completed by the club. The Cardinals have an initial idea of what their offer to the six-time All-Star will look like, and sources have said the team would be open to discussions going into the season, if Goldschmidt is. He intends to keep such talks “private” — and the Cardinals are taking their cues from him on pacing and on timing.  

There hasn’t been any real smoke since then, so the hunch here is that will start taking place during the regular season, with the Cardinals trying to convince Goldschmidt that he’s playing in “Baseball Heaven.” 

Marcell Ozuna had a monster 2017 season in which he hit .312/.376/.548 (149 OPS+) with 37 homers and 124 RBI for the Marlins. His first year in St. Louis didn’t go nearly as well as planned and he’s now attempting to come back from shoulder surgery. Given the circumstances here, that include Goldschmidt, it’s hard to see anything happening. 

See Bogaerts, Xander. 

Sale is heading to his age-30 season and has finished in the top six of AL Cy Young voting a ridiculous seven straight seasons. After last year, though, there have to be health-related concerns. How to balance that with Sale’s amazing career and the risks in free agency is something I’ll leave up to the Red Sox and Sale’s agent, B.B. Abbott. 

See Cole, Gerrit. 

Verlander will be 37 in 2020, so any extension is likely short term with a big average annual value. My bet is the Astros focus more on Cole, but if they can’t get that done they work with Verlander on something for 2020-21 with incentive-based options for 2022 and/or 2023.