Michigan vs. Michigan State odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from model on 16-8 roll

No. 7 Michigan Wolverines will host No. 10 Michigan State Spartansin the Big Ten on Sunday. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET and the Wolverines are four-point favorites at home with the total set at 131 in the latest Michigan vs. Michigan State odds. These teams are tied at the top of the Big Ten standings at 13-3 with just four regular-season games to play and the rematch scheduled to end the season in East Lansing later this year. So the stakes are enormously high and you’re definitely going to want to check out the college basketball predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine before making your own Michigan vs. Michigan State picks.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. 

It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has locked in on Michigan vs. Michigan State. We can tell you it’s backing the over, but it also has a strong pick against the spread that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before you lock in your own picks.

For Saturday’s top-10 showdown, the model knows that Michigan will be looking to take advantage of a clear edge in the turnover department. Michigan is the No. 3 team in the nation when it comes to protecting the basketball, turning it over on just 14 percent of its offensive possessions against Division-I opponents. Meanwhile, the Michigan State defense ranks 326th in the nation in forcing turnovers despite being the No. 8 team in adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the other end of the floor, the Michigan defense ranks in the top half of the country by creating turnovers on 19.3 percent of possessions while the Michigan State offense ranks in the bottom half of the country with turnovers on 19 percent of possessions. 

However, that doesn’t mean the Wolverines are a lock to cover the Michigan vs. Michigan State spread on Sunday.

The Spartans lead the nation by assisting on 68.6 percent of their made field goals and the Wolverines will be required to defend side to side as Michigan State gets everybody involved.

Cassius Winston will be the key to it all with Nick Ward out indefinitely, Joshua Langford out for the season and Kyle Ahrens questionable. And it’s hard to imagine anybody is more qualified to carry that sort of load while elevating the play of his teammates stepping into expanded roles than Winston, who averages 18.9 points and 7.4 assists per game.

Who wins Michigan State vs. Michigan? And which side of the spread cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Michigan State vs. Michigan spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model that has returned more than $5,000 to $100 players the last two years.