NASCAR at Atlanta odds, picks 2019: Model says Chase Elliott surprises at Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

The 2019 NASCAR schedule kicks into high gear Sunday with the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET for the 325-lap race and defending champion Kevin Harvick is the 4-1 favorite in the latest 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds. Falling in just behind him with 6-1 NASCAR at Atlanta odds are Joey Logano and Kyle Busch, who both finished in the top four last week at the Daytona 500. Before you make your own 2019 QuikTrip 500 picks and NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to check out the projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, including nailing wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it’s off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top contender from the start. Anybody who has followed its picks is way, way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Atlanta Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now his model simulated the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 a total of 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off at 10-1 odds. Elliott doesn’t have a long history at Atlanta, but he’s had success there in all three of his starts at the track since joining the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. He’s finished inside the top 10 in each of those races and even earned a top-five finish in 2017.

Before joining NASCAR’s top circuit, Elliott had two top-five finishes at Atlanta in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Elliott is a Georgia native and his father, Bill Elliott, won at NASCAR’s highest level at Atlanta Motor Speedway five times in his career, so it’s something of a home track for the 23-year-old. The model expects him to ride that advantage towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Another shocker from the model: Kyle Busch, one of the top Vegas favorites at 6-1, doesn’t even crack the top five.

The 2019 Daytona 500 runner-up started on the pole in this race a season ago, but wound up finishing in seventh position. The year prior, he had another quick ride in qualifying and started the race in third, but wound up in 16th.

Since his win at Atlanta in 2013, Busch has only run 56.7 percent of his laps inside the top 15. For his career, he has finished outside the top 10 in 13 of his 20 career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway. There are far better values in this loaded 2019 QuikTrip 500 lineup than the 6-1 premium you’ll need to pay for him.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Atlanta odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the full projected leaderboard for NASCAR at Atlanta from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kevin Harvick 4-1
Kyle Busch 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Denny Hamlin 15-1
Aric Almirola 20-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1