New 12 Team CFB Playoff Format Puts More Emphasis on Strength of Schedule

Y’all ain’t played nobody!

It might as well be college football’s slogan. Debates about strength of schedule are part of the fabric of the sport, like marching bands, cheerleaders and tailgating.

With the size of the College Football Playoff tripling in size from four teams to 12 this season — including seven at-large bids — expect the arguments over the relative difficulty of teams’ schedules to increase exponentially.

The posturing and politicking has already begun.

“This is the NFL of college football in my mind,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said during Big Ten media days. At Southeastern Conference media days, the NFL was also invoked when the topic steered to schedules.

“As coaches we want to play the best. People forget that when you’ve spent time in the NFL, every week was like that,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. “So when Texas and Oklahoma came into the conference, every schedule was going to get harder.”

The debates aren’t just about which conferences are the best. With super-sized conferences of 16-18 teams, the differences in strength of schedule within leagues can be significant.

The CFP selection committee uses a strength-of-schedule rating provided by SportSource Analytics that includes components such as wins and losses, scoring differential and game location.

Balancing who you played with how you played will be harder than ever.

“There’s a weight on the committee that’s new. I want to see how the committee processes that,” SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey said during spring meetings. “And my encouragement is that this, ‘Well, we have an undefeated team so they’re in’ is not the standard. It never was the standard. Obviously, that stirred up controversy last year.”

Toughest schedules in the Power Four

There are dozens of data-based rating systems to measure the relative strength of college football teams, and all have some type of schedule-rating component.

The AP took three systems — ESPN’s SP+, FEI and KFord Ratings — and averaged their strength of schedule rankings for all 134 Bowl Subdivision teams to determine where each Power Four team’s schedule ranks nationally (all games, not just conference games, are factored in).

Using those projections, SEC teams on average will be facing the toughest schedules this season.

The CFP choices

The CFP field announced Dec. 8 will be comprised of the five highest-ranked conference champions, regardless of league, and seven at-large selections. There is no limit to the number of at-large bids a conference can receive.

The most interesting comparisons for the CFP selection committee might end up being between the many conference rivals that do not play each other in the regular season.

What to do with a 10-2 Missouri and a 9-3 Alabama (composite strength-of-schedule ranking, 9.3)? Or Iowa (37) at 10-2 and Michigan (16) at 9-3? Over in the ACC, what would happen while assessing a 10-2 Virginia Tech (68) and a 9-3 Florida State (30.3)?

“Especially when we’re picking (seven) teams now, we’re looking at the loss column with a bit more scrutiny,” Fremeau said. “They’re going to be debating teams like that with a one or possibly two-game difference in record, but a comparable difference in expected schedule rating and they’re going to have that debate about which one they value more.”

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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP

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