Why are the Iowa caucuses so important? What to know about today’s high-stakes vote

Republicans are in a fierce competition as they’ve crisscrossed all Iowa’s 99 counties ahead of Monday’s caucuses. Prominent Republicans have made extensive efforts to court Iowans, but going into the caucuses, former President Donald Trump is maintaining a substantial lead over his rivals in the polls. Iowa Caucuses

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have traveled extensively in the state, in an effort to close the gap, and in recent weeks, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has also been campaigning in Iowa.

When are the Iowa caucuses?

The Republican Party will hold its caucuses on Monday, Jan. 15, at 7 p.m. CT, or 8 p.m. ET. Iowa Democrats are holding a caucus on the same day, but are opting for voters to choose their candidate entirely by mail-in ballot this election cycle and will release the results on Super Tuesday on March 5.

Following the chaotic events of Democratic 2020 caucuses, Iowa Democrats had overhauled their caucus and presidential delegate selection process to ensure an indisputable winner.

President Biden and his team will instead prioritize South Carolina as the initial state in the lineup, succeeded by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, with Michigan following. Originally, the plan included Georgia holding a primary just before Michigan, but Democratic efforts to advance their date faced resistance from Republicans in the state.

But New Hampshire has opted to maintain its first-in-nation primary status and will hold its primary on Jan. 23, and Mr. Biden will not be on the ballot. His team has led a write-in campaign in the state.

What is the difference between a caucus and a primary?

caucus involves a more complex process where participants gather openly, engaging in discussions and voting to express their support for a particular candidate. Unlike primaries, caucuses require voters to physically attend specific meetings, which demands a higher level of commitment — meaning there is lower voter turnout. The process of assigning delegates in caucuses may differ, adding greater flexibility to the overall method.

Conversely, in a primary election, voters participate by casting their ballots in private to choose their preferred candidate. This process is akin to a general election, allowing voters to select their candidate in a more straightforward manner. Primary elections generally witness higher voter participation due to their accessibility, with voters able to cast their ballots throughout the day. Delegates in primaries are typically allocated proportionally, reflecting the percentage of votes each candidate receives.

Primaries offer a simpler and more accessible voting process, resulting in higher voter participation, while caucuses involve a more involved and participatory approach, requiring voters to actively engage in discussions. The decision hinges on the rules and preferences set by the state party.

Why do presidential candidates care so much about the Iowa caucus?

Historically, presidential candidates have looked to the Iowa caucus to help launch themselves to nominee status.

But the Iowa caucus hasn’t always gone on to be the best predictor of who will be the party’s nominee, even less so at predicting who will win the presidency. The state is largely White and conservative and not entirely representative of the U.S. population.

Iowa Republicans selected Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016 — none of whom went on to clinch the nomination.

Some candidates who faced defeat in Iowa went on to secure victory, including Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Trump in 2016.

Since its inception in 1972, only three presidential candidates who triumphed in the Iowa caucuses have ascended to the presidency: Democrats Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, and Republican George W. Bush in 2000.

Still, the caucus’ outcome frequently provides an outsized advantage to winners and those who exceed expectations, often narrowing down the field by prompting underperforming candidates to exit the race.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is vying for second place in Iowa, has focused much of time and resources on the state — he’s visited all 99 of its counties and secured the endorsement of GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds. But even if he loses to Trump in Iowa, DeSantis’ spokesperson said his campaign will not be derailed.

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