2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Surprising picks from model that nailed four golf majors

The PGA Tour returns this week with a star-studded field for the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational that tees off Thursday. Many of the world’s top golfers will compete at Bay Hill in Orlando. Defending champion Rory McIlroy enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2019 as the Vegas favorite at 8-1. He’s followed closely by eight-time winner Tiger Woods, who is listed at 9-1 in the latest 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and has been idle since the WGC-Mexico Championship. Before locking in any 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks of your own or entering any DFS tournaments or cash games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to see the PGA predictions and projected leaderboard from the team at SportsLine. 

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods’ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Dustin Johnson at the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the 2019 Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is up huge. 

Now that the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, an eight-time winner of this event and one of the top Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top 10. 

Woods will be making his 19th appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, an event he has absolutely dominated. The 14-time major champion could become the first player to win a single PGA Tour event nine times with a victory this week. Woods’ dominance included four consecutive wins from 2000-03. He followed that up with back-to-back victories in 2008-09 and two more in 2012-13.

However, Woods’ last Arnold Palmer Invitational victory was six years ago. He also enters this week’s event ranked 72nd in driving accuracy percentage (64.29), which could cause major trouble at Bay Hill. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field than the 9-1 premium he’s commanding. 

Another surprise: Francesco Molinari, a 33-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. 

Molinari has been extremely successful at Bay Hill in recent years. In fact, the 2018 British Open champion has recorded three top-10 finishes in his past five starts at this event. He has a much better chance to win it all than his 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Look for him to climb the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard quickly this week.

Also, the model says three other golfers with 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds of 18-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. 

So who wins the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Arnold Palmer Invitational projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors, and find out.

Rory McIlroy 8-1
Tiger Woods 9-1
Justin Rose 12-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Rickie Fowler 14-1
Jason Day 16-1
Byson DeChambeau 18-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Marc Leishman
Francesco Molinari 33-1
Tommy Fleetwood 33-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1