2019 NFL combine: D.K. Metcalf dominates in Indy, but his game-day outlook isn’t as easy an evaluation

INDIANAPOLIS — D.K. Metcalf had the most fascinating combine performance I’ve ever witnessed, and not for the reasons you’re thinking.

Sure, every year the event has at least one player who “blows the doors off” Lucas Oil Stadium and enjoys elevated draft stock afterward. But Metcalf’s story is unique for draft nerds like yours truly, because in the span of about eight hours, he went from being mentioned in the same breath as Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson, the two freakiest receiver prospects in combine history, to being relentlessly mocked on Twitter for historically poor times in the agility drills. 

Here’s what happened. Metcalf — at nearly 6-foot-4 and 228 pounds — ran a 4.33 in the 40 after he did 27 reps on the bench press (an insanely high number), which followed a 40.5-inch vertical and an 134-inch broad jump, placing him in the 97th percentile in that drill among receiver’s at the combine over the past 20 years. 

Then, hours later — we’re talking around 7 p.m. ET on Saturday night when the media room was essentially empty and the TV broadcast had long been over — Metcalf’s times in the three-cone (7.38 seconds) and short shuttle (4.50 seconds) were posted, and red flags were raised. Those two drills best measure change-of-direction ability, absolutely vital in the NFL, particularly at receiver, and Metcalf’s times are as bad as his 40-yard, vertical, and broad jumps were good. We’re talking 2nd and 3rd percentile, respectively. 

For context, 315-pound offensive tackle Andre Dillard had a faster three-cone time (7.44), and 12 of the 13 quarterbacks who participated in the short shuttle ran it faster than Metcalf’s 4.50. 

Everything Metcalf did at the combine begs the question: Is he actually good at football?

To answer, I’ll start with this play against Louisiana Monroe this past season that fully encapsulates Metcalf’s game. 

Re-watch it, and note these elements: 

• Impressive burst off the snap with his head down to stay low and build momentum from his lower half, truly a sprinter’s technique.
• Relatively slow shuffling of the feet at the top of his stem to stop before turning and moving toward the sideline.
• His incendiary athleticism and the role his size plays after the catch.

Metcalf is not simply a train unable to move laterally. In fact, from a standstill at the line of scrimmage, he’s been gifted with enough agility to shake defenders in press coverage, and he’s very physical with his hands too. Here’s Metcalf’s most famous play from 2018, the first play of the game against Alabama. Check the lateral movement and hand slap at the line. 

And that wasn’t a one-time thing. His 2018 film showcases many examples of him juking corners in press coverage.

The issues indicated by his bad agility-drill times come in his route running, after he’s exploded forward then has to slam on the breaks and change directions, or when he tries an upper-body fake to create separation as he’s running. I think those weaknesses are part of the reason Metcalf averaged just 3.42 catches per game over the past two seasons at Ole Miss. 

Here against LSU star and future first-round pick Greedy Williams, notice the tightness in his entire body when using a head/shoulder fake. 

Metcalf also had two drops in that LSU game, one on a lower throw in the red zone on a comeback route and another on a comeback route right in his breadbasket across the middle. He has some issues with what should be easy completions but can also do things like this. 

And this. 

Metcalf isn’t the next Julio. Or Megatron. Both of those gargantuan athletic freaks were more polished with their route-running — it helped that they were asked to run more than two or three routes in college — and were more flexible in their hips and ankles when needing to rapidly change directions.  

Despite Metcalf’s insane linear athleticism and his monstrous size and strength, his success at the NFL level will be very sensitive to scheme and what his coaches ask of him. If he’s needed to run post-corners, whip routes, and others that require him to throttle down and change directions, we will be talking about someone who never remotely lives up to expectations. 

If he gets to a team that uses him a lot like Josh Gordon has been deployed — Yahoo! Sports’ Matt Harmon noted Gordon ran either a go, slant, or post on 60% of his routes in 2017 — then Metcalf can be a borderline superstar at the NFL level. All those routes keep momentum moving forward.

Another playing style comparison at a similar size for Metcalf is Demaryius Thomas, and Metcalf has more juice downfield. Thomas was largely a screen or go-route receiver in Denver, and after two pedestrian seasons to begin his pro career as he matured, Thomas erupted for five-straight 1,000-yard campaigns, which included two second-team All-Pro distinctions. 

Metcalf does find himself in a loaded receiver group. And while he’s clearly more athletically intimidating than, say, NC State’s Kelvin Harmon, who ran 4.61, to me, Harmon is more NFL ready. So is Metcalf’s teammate A.J. Brown, my current No. 1 receiver. There’s also Iowa State’s towering wideout Hakeem Butler, who ran 4.48 at nearly 6-6 and 227 pounds. Butler’s more dominant in contested-catch situations than Metcalf and seems more fluid changing directions. And Stanford’s big wideout JJ Arcega-Whiteside has better ball skills in traffic than any of those pass-catchers.  

The hype for Metcalf will lead to him landing inside the top 10 in the 2019 NFL Draft. I’d be stunned if he’s available beyond that. Do I think there are better receiver prospects than him in this class? Yes. Either way, Metcalf is still a clear-cut first-round talent in my eyes, and hopefully the team that drafts him accentuates his strengths and, at least initially, hides his weaknesses.