Bracketology: Washington’s unfathomable loss to Cal caps a horrible night for the Pac-12, which could be a one-bid league

A new bracket projection is out and the bracket will be updated daily from here on out. Virginia is the new overall No. 1 seed after Duke’s loss to Virginia Tech on Tuesday. Gonzaga is second and Kentucky is fourth.

The Wildcats will travel to Tennessee on Saturday with the Volunteers looking to avenge their loss at Rupp Arena a couple of weeks ago.

Top seeds in latest Bracketology

[Check out Palm’s full bracket with all 68 seeds and the first four four teams out on our Bracketology page]

Pac-12 take a beating

Thursday was a very bad night for the Pac-12. Arizona State, which is hanging on to a bracket spot by a thread, lost at Oregon 79-51. Meanwhile, league leader Washington got dumped at last place Cal, which ranked 275th in the NET entering the game. For a team with no quality wins, that is an eyesore on the tournament resume.

Washington dropped to a No. 9 seed after the loss and Arizona State is in the First Four. You now have to consider the possibility of the Pac-12 being a one-bid league.

Soft bubble is still a bubble

You often hear me talk about teams having to be four games above .500 to get into the bracket as an at-large team. That is not a written rule, but a very strong historical indicator. Only one team has received an at-large bid that was fewer than four games above .500 in the 25 years that I have been tracking the selection process.

That team was Georgia in 2001, which finished 16-14, but still made the tournament. However, before you get too excited about your team that is barely above .500, let me tell you that no team compares to that Georgia team. That season, the Bulldogs schedule had 27 of its 30 teams in the top 100 of the RPI. Your team’s schedule isn’t anywhere near that tough.

So, even with a soft bubble, your team’s chances of getting in with a record worse than four games above .500 are pretty slim. Making the NCAA Tournament isn’t the same as getting bowl eligible in football. Tough schedule or not, you need to win games.

I say that in part to dissuade the readers that in the last couple of weeks have asked about Illinois (10-15 at the time), Indiana (14-14), Penn State (12-16) and South Carolina (13-14). Indiana and South Carolina could conceivably still make it if they got really hot right now, but that would go against the run of play. 

Texas is sitting there at 15-13 and I have them in the first four out. I have also had them in the bracket at three games over .500. If a team can get into this bracket at three games over, it is probably the Longhorns.