2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Surprising picks from same model that nailed four golf majors

Word broke on Monday that Tiger Woods had withdrawn from the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational with a neck strain. Woods is an eight-time champion of the event and was fighting to become the first nine-time winner of any PGA tournament. Now, the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational field will be without Woods, who was going off as the second-biggest Vegas favorite at 9-1. Rory McIlroy, who won this tournament by three strokes last year over Bryson DeChambeau, is the favorite at 8-1 Arnold Palmer Invtational odds, while DeChambeau is listed at 18-1. Bay Hill in Orlando will host this week’s stop on the PGA schedule starting on Thursday. Before locking in any 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks of your own or trying your hand at a PGA DFS tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to check in on the latest PGA predictions from the team at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods’ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Dustin Johnson at the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the 2019 Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is up huge. 

Now that the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: McIlroy, the defending champion and top Vegas favorite on the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds board, makes a strong run but falls short of winning the title. 

Thus far in the 2018-19 PGA schedule, McIlroy has already racked up four top-10 finishes. And although he has 14 career PGA Tour victories, he’s only finished on top of the leaderboard once since 2016.

Despite his red-hot start to the new season, McIlroy enters the 2019 Arnold Palmer Classic ranked 171st on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage (57.39), which could cause major trouble at Bay Hill. His inability to keep the ball in the fairway off the tee will leave McIlroy scrambling around Palmer’s famed Championship Course. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field than the 8-1 premium he’s commanding.

Another surprise: Francesco Molinari, a 33-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. 

Molinari has been extremely successful at Bay Hill in recent years. In fact, the 2018 British Open champion has recorded three top-10 finishes in his past five starts at this event. He has a much better chance to win it all than his 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Look for him to climb the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard quickly this week.

Also, the model says three other golfers with 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds of 18-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. 

So who wins the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Arnold Palmer Invitational projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors, and find out.

Rory McIlroy 8-1
Justin Rose 12-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Rickie Fowler 14-1
Jason Day 16-1
Byson DeChambeau 18-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Marc Leishman
Francesco Molinari 33-1
Tommy Fleetwood 33-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1