Warriors vs. Celtics odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from computer model on 52-37 roll

Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors host Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night. Tip-off from Oracle Arena is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics have struggled lately, losing five of their past six games. As a result, they’ve plummeted to the No. 5 seed in the East and are three games back from the coveted three-seed. The Warriors, meanwhile, hold a two-game lead over the rest of the Western Conference and are coming off a defining road win in Philadelphia. Golden State is listed as an eight-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 229.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Celtics odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Celtics picks and NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 21 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 234-178 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 21 on a strong 52-37 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Celtics vs. Warriors. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of how important home-court advantage is in this matchup. The Warriors hold one of the NBA’s best home records (23-8), while Boston has struggled on the road this season (14-16). Furthermore, Boston has covered the spread in just 37.9 percent of its road games. The Celtics have lost their past three away from home entering Tuesday’s contest, which includes an ugly 10-point loss to the woeful Bulls in Chicago.

In addition to having home-court advantage, Golden State has a chance to have all five starters suited up for this game, which is something they haven’t accomplished in over a week. Klay Thompson is questionable, but Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins are both back from one-game absences and firing on all cylinders. Durant showed no signs of rust in his first game back, torching a strong Sixers defense for 34 points.

But just because Curry and company benefit from home-court advantage doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Warriors vs. Celtics spread on Tuesday.

The model is also well aware that while the Warriors have been winning games, they have also been downright dreadful against the spread this season. Overall, they have the NBA’s worst cover rate at just 40.3 percent.

Vegas clearly has been overvaluing the defending champs, and that has been even more apparent when playing at home. The Warriors have covered the spread in just 36.7 percent of their games at Oracle Arena this season, including a 1-6 record in home games over the past month. Boston, meanwhile, has covered in five straight visits to Oracle.

Who wins Celtics vs. Warriors ? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Celtics vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.