AAF Week 6 odds, picks: Apollos cover, Commanders keep winning on the road
Week 6 in the AAF is here and there’s an interesting juxtaposition between offenses and point totals. On one hand, offenses are clearly getting better. More points are being scored and teams are moving the ball better as they settle in to more established personnel groupings.
However, a look at the point totals for this weekend still show a heavy lean towards lower-scoring games. Three of the four opening totals from MGM are 40 or below. Whereas point totals opened big and came down some in the first few weeks of the season, you might see the opposite effect in the coming weeks.
In any case, with offenses operating at their highest efficiency so far, Week 6 should have some entertaining games on tap after the wild action across the Alliance in Week 5. Here are this week’s picks for Week 6. Lines and point totals are courtesy of MGM.
Memphis Express at Salt Lake Stallions (-8), O/U 39.5
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line fall a point or two before the start of this game. Even with home field advantage, a full touchdown is a lot for a favorite with just one win. Besides, Memphis has been keeping games close since switching to Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. Mett has the arm to stretch the field — he’s also the second-most efficient quarterback in the AAF — and the Stallions have the worst passing defense in the league. The bigger question for me is the point total. While neither defense is amazing, the offenses aren’t putting up a ton of points in the red zone, either.
Pick: Memphis +8, Under 39.5
Arizona Hotshots at Orlando Apollos (-9.5), O/U 43.5
The line is just big enough to almost make me take the Hotshots. If it were any bigger, I might. For one, no team has covered as huge favorites. Also, for as frustrating as Arizona has been, it does have the ability to put points on the board in a hurry. The connection between quarterback John Wolford and Rashad Ross vs. Orlando’s excellent pass defense should be the deciding matchup in this game. The Apollos have had so many answers to every challenge they’ve faced, so I’ll take them to cover and bang the over at home, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Hotshots made this a game. The matchup is intriguing.
Pick: Orlando -9.5, Over 43.5
San Antonio Commanders at Atlanta Legends (-1), O/U 40
The Commanders end their four-game road tour in Week 6 and not a moment too soon. The Legends have won two straight since making the switch to quarterback Aaron Murray. Not only that, Atlanta’s defense has been playing well as of late, too. All in all, it’s not that surprising to see the Legends as a slight favorite. However, it’s worth noting that the Commanders are 2-1 on this road game stretch. If Murray can hit enough big plays down the field against San Antonio’s porous pass defense it has a chance, but the Commanders have plenty of firepower, too.
Pick: San Antonio +1, Over 40
Birmingham Iron at San Diego Fleet (-6), O/U 35.5
These are two of the better defenses in the Alliance, and there has been plenty of quarterback rotation for both sides, but lord have mercy that point total is awfully low. The Fleet are undefeated at home, but Birmingham might have new life with Keith Price at quarterback. He racked up nearly 250 yards of offense and threw a touchdown pass in a Week 5 loss to Orlando. Will Price make enough plays to win, though? The Fleet got two defensive touchdowns a week ago and can clearly win leaning on that side of the ball.
Pick: Birmingham +6, Over 35.5