NASCAR at Las Vegas odds, picks 2019: Model says Aric Almirola surprises at Pennzoil 400

Sunday’s 2019 Pennzoil 400 promises plenty of excitement for NASCAR fans everywhere. Last year, Kevin Harvick claimed the checkered flag and jumpstarted his dominant season that saw him record eight victories. Now, he’ll look to defend his title at the 2019 Pennzoil 400, which gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Harvick enters Sunday’s race as the Vegas favorite at 9-2 in the live 2019 Pennzoil 400 odds. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch (5-1), Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Kyle Larson (6-1) and Brad Keselowski (6-1) are all going off at 6-1 or lower. Weather won’t be a factor, as the latest Las Vegas forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and sunny skies. This year’s edition of the Pennzoil 400 has an extremely talented field of drivers, so before you make any 2019 Pennzoil 400 picks or enter a daily Fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to consult the 2019 Pennzoil 400 projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it’s off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender and putting QuikTrip 500 winner Brad Keselowski in his projected top five. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up. 

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Las Vegas Motor Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the Pennzoil 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 Pennzoil 400, we can tell you the model is high on Aric Almirola, who makes a serious run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 20-1 Pennzoil 400 odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Almirola is coming off an impressive performance last week at the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He led 36 laps before finishing in the top 10 and he’ll will look to carry over that momentum into Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR at Las Vegas race.

The former rookie of the year posted career-highs in every major statistical category last season. In fact, Almirola ended last season with five top-10 finishes in his last six races. Plus, he had major success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last year, cracking the top 10 in both Monster Energy NASCAR Cup races. With so much success at this track last year, you can confidently lock him in at 20-1 odds and look for a chance at a monster payout.

One of the shocking 2019 Pennzoil 400 picks from the model: Kyle Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites at 6-1, doesn’t even crack the top five. Larson has made a career out of getting to the front of the pack consistently, with top-five finishes in 34 percent of races from 2016-2018. However, when he gets to the front, he’s had a hard time closing.

The 26-year-old hasn’t registered a win in nearly 18 months, and the sting of finishing 12th in Atlanta after leading 142 laps will be fresh on his mind. Even with three career top-five finishes in six starts at Las Vegas, that 6-1 price is daunting for a driver who has won just a single race outside of his four-win season in 2017.

The model is targeting four total drivers with 2019 Pennzoil 400 odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Pennzoil 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 Pennzoil 400 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the full projected leaderboard for NASCAR at Las Vegas from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kevin Harvick 9-2
Kyle Busch 5-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Brad Keselowski 6-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Aric Alrmirola 20-1
Denny Hamlin 25-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1

Categories: National Sports

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