Pacers vs. Bucks odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from model on 52-37 run
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks play host to Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers on Thursday, with tipoff from Fiserv Forum scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The Bucks are on their first two-game losing streak of the season, but still hold a 2.5-game lead in the East. Meanwhile, Indiana is 6.5 games behind Milwaukee, but still holds a one-game advantage over the Sixers for the coveted third seed in the NBA playoff picture. A win Thursday would be huge with Philly closing the gap quickly. Milwaukee is listed as a 10-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 223 in the latest Bucks vs. Pacers odds. Before you make any Pacers vs. Bucks picks and NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 21 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 234-178 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 21 on a strong 52-37 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Pacers vs. Bucks. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware that no team has been stronger against the spread than the Bucks. Normally, elite teams do not fare well against the number. For example, the Warriors are dead last in cover rate (39.7 percent), followed by the Raptors (40.6 percent). However, Milwaukee ranks No. 1 in the NBA with a sterling 60.7 percent cover rate. That number is even stronger (62.5 percent) when playing with a spread between 8.5 and 11.5 points like Thursday’s. The fact that this game is in Milwaukee also is a huge advantage, as the Bucks have the NBA’s best home record at 25-5.
Just because Milwaukee benefits from home-court advantage doesn’t mean it will cover the Bucks vs. Pacers spread Thursday.
The model is also well aware that while Milwaukee hasn’t lost at home since early January, they certainly have faltered against the spread during that time. In fact, it appears Vegas might have over-corrected in 2019, as despite excellent play at home lately, Milwaukee is just 1-5 against the spread in its past six home games.
If Indiana is going to capitalize in this spot, it will likely have to be on the back of Turner, who has hosted a week-long block party. Over the past three games, the league’s leading shot-blocker has piled up an absurd 17 swats to push his season average up to 2.9.
So who wins Pacers vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pacers vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.