Could Summer Flights Get Rougher?

CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (WDEF) – Summer travel already comes with packed airports, delays, and stormy skies, but this year, climate patterns could shape what some passengers experience in the air.

One of those patterns is El Niño, a naturally occurring climate cycle that develops when parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. While it begins over the ocean, its impacts can stretch across the globe, shifting weather patterns, influencing rainfall, and changing storm activity.

For travelers, one question stands out… could flights feel bumpier?

Scientists say strong El Niño conditions can influence wind speed and direction high in the atmosphere. Those shifts, known as wind shear, may increase the potential for clear air turbulence in some regions.

Clear air turbulence, often called CAT, is different from turbulence caused by visible thunderstorms. It can happen in seemingly calm skies and is harder to detect because it is not always visible on weather radar.

Climate Scientist and Oceanographer Joellen Russell says warmer ocean temperatures help drive stronger atmospheric convection, which can contribute to conditions linked to turbulence.

Research tied to strong El Niño conditions has suggested parts of the United States and the North Atlantic may see increased moderate or greater turbulence because of changes in atmospheric wind patterns.

Still, turbulence does not automatically mean flights are unsafe. Airlines and pilots routinely adjust flight paths and altitudes to avoid rough air when possible, and commercial aircraft are built to handle turbulence.

For travelers heading out this summer, the takeaway may simply be to expect the possibility of a bumpier ride on some routes and to keep seatbelts fastened whenever seated.