Today’s Top Picks: There’s value on the Warriors against the Spurs, plus more best bets for Monday
Mondays typically suck because they’re Mondays, but this might be the worst Monday of the year. For the last two weeks, we’ve had the pleasure of afternoon college basketball on weekdays due to conference tournament season, and it all came to a crescendo on Sunday afternoon with the final games, and then the unveiling of the 2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket.
And now nothing. Nothing until Thursday when the tournament begins, and the addiction is fed anew. Sure, there are the play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday night, but they’ve never felt like real tournament games. Two of them are teams fighting for the right to be ritually sacrificed to No. 1 seeds, while the other two are mediocre teams who were nearly sent to the NIT.
It’s just not enough. Thankfully, we have the NBA to help us kill time until the insanity begins again Thursday, and I just so happen to have three NBA plays (odds via Westgate) I like on Monday night.
1. Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs: Warriors -2.5
I’ve never been a big fan of betting on popular public teams like the Warriors as the lines in their game are often skewed with a little too much optimism. That’s part of the reason they’re only 28-39-1 ATS this season (not coincidentally, the only team doing worse ATS this season is LeBron’s Lakers). I think there’s value on this line, though, because it’s lower than it should be due to the uncertainty around Kevin Durant. Durant’s missed the last two games because of an ankle, but Steve Kerr said over the weekend he expects him to play in this game. So I’m trying to take advantage of this line before it grows larger if Durant is playing. Of course, if you want to wait and see what KD’s status is before making a move, I don’t blame you.
2. New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors: Under 213.5
The Raptors are 11.5-point favorites over the decaying corpse that is the Knicks, but that spread is a bit too large for my taste. Instead, give me the under. The Knicks have the least efficient offense in the league, and they’re going against one of the most efficient defenses. The under is also 25-19 in their games against Eastern Conference foes. As for the Raptors, they won’t have Kawhi Leonard and could be without Kyle Lowry. That should depress their offense enough to put value on this under.
3. Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers: Under 212.5
When it comes to defensive efficiency, the Pacers trail only the Bucks in the NBA this season. That’s helped them overcome the loss of Victor Oladipo, and it’s also helped them be one of the most reliable under teams in the NBA this year, as the under has gone 41-29 in their games. My concern with taking the Pacers ATS (+4.5) is I’m not sure they’re strong enough offensively to stay within the number against this Blazers team, but I do think they’ll limit scoring enough to keep this total from going over.
So who wins Spurs vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Spurs vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.