Warriors vs. Spurs odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from model on 59-44 run

LaMarcus Aldridge and the San Antonio Spurs host Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors on Monday, with tipoff from the AT&T Center set for 8 p.m. ET. The Spurs own the NBA‘s longest winning streak after beating Portland for their eighth straight victory this weekend. Meanwhile, Golden State is coming off of a road victory over the Thunder, but is still just one game up on the Nuggets for the top seed in the West. Golden State is listed as a 2.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points scored is 223.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Spurs odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Spurs picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 23 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 253-195 record on all top-rated picks, returning well over $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 23 on a strong 59-44 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Warriors vs. Spurs. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware that Golden State ranks ahead of San Antonio in offensive and defensive efficiency, rebounding rate and point differential. There are very few meaningful metrics in which San Antonio even is close to matching Golden State. 

The Warriors have appeared locked in recently too, picking up tough road wins over the Rockets and Thunder. They did that without the assistance of Kevin Durant (ankle), who is expected to return to action for Monday’s game. Durant has averaged 25 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists against San Antonio this season, so his return would certainly provide an edge for the Warriors.

Just because Golden State is the better team on paper doesn’t mean it is a lock to cover the Warriors vs. Spurs spread, however. 

The model is also aware that Golden State has been one of Vegas’ most overvalued teams this year. The Warriors rank second-to-last in cover rate (41.8 percent), which falls to 40 percent when they are favored. San Antonio, meanwhile, has the NBA’s fifth highest cover rate at 55.7 percent. 

San Antonio also has been virtually unbeatable at home lately. You’d have to search all the way back to Jan. 19 for San Antonio’s last home loss. A big reason for San Antonio’s dominance at home is the play of Aldridge, who has averaged 23.3 points on 53 percent shooting at home, as opposed to 19 points on 49.4 percent on the road. Aldridge already helped San Antonio secure a 12-point home victory against Golden State once this season on the back of a 24-point, 18-rebound performance.

So who wins Spurs vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Spurs vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

Categories: National Sports

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